Many Iranian economists believe that producer price index (PPI) inflation lead consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Based on this hypothesis, increasing (decreasing) in PPI inflation is a signal for future increasing (decreasing) in CPI inflation. Using CPI and PPI sub components, this paper tests the abovementioned hypothesis.359 sub components of consumer basket and 751 sub components of producer basket during 1383 to 1392 are information used in calculations. The results show that PPI inflation does not lead CPI inflation, but by eliminating the common sub components between CPI and PPI from PPI components and reconstructing PPI, we see that reconstructed PPI inflation can lead CPI inflation both in long and short run.

This paper looks studies the price change transmission mechanism from producer price index to consumer price index using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. We use the monthly data on the PPI, WPI, and CPI for the period 1990:4 to 2005:3. The Results from impulse response function suggest that a positive shock in PPI makes the WPI and CPI to rise immediately and it lasts for more than 12 months. Moreover, a positive shock in WPI makes CPI to rise but in less than 6 months it becomes statistically insignificant in less than 6 months. Moreover, the Variance decomposition of CPI suggests that PPI is the most influential factor in CPI changes, The variance decomposition of WPI also suggests that PPI is a significant factor in WPI changes.

During financial stress, the impact of financial stress shocks on economic activity may be different from what is usually observed at normal times. Therefore, it is appropriate to examine how the effects of the strategic impact on economic activity are investigated during the period of financial instability. In this paper, considering the above discussion, the effect of the deteriorating financial conditions of the Iranian economy and its impact on macroeconomic variables during the years1391 to 1396 has been investigated. For this purpose, in this research, we intend to study the impact of fluctuations of financial stress index fluctuations on consumer price index, producer price index and consumer price index by constructing financial stress index using representatives of different markets. Therefore, using the GARCH two-variable BEKK model and also the VAR model, the effects of shock and fluctuations between them were tested and then the relationship between them was investigated by Granger's causality test. The results indicate that there is a two-way relationship between the financial stress index with the consumer index in the short run, but in the study of the causality relationship between the financial stress index and the price index producing the causality tests and var indicate that the relationship They do not exist between them, but the results of the garch test indicate a meaningful relationship between these two indices.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a key indicator for evaluating price changes in the early stages of production, playing a crucial role in inflation analysis and economic policymaking. Logistics risk and economic sanctions are also significant factors influencing this index, having substantial impacts on production costs and prices. The primary aim of this study is to examine the interactive effect of logistics risk and economic sanctions on the PPI in Iran from 2014 to 2023, using the Dynamic Least Squares method. The results reveal that both economic sanctions and logistics risk have a significant impact on the PPI in Iran. Sanctions, through limiting access to international financial and trade resources, increasing the costs of importing raw materials, and causing exchange rate fluctuations, lead to higher production costs. Meanwhile, logistics risks, stemming from inadequate transportation infrastructure, customs issues, and dependence on imports, directly influence production costs. These challenges are exacerbated by sanctions, which increase transportation and supply chain costs. The interactive effects of these two factors contribute to rising production costs and the growth of the PPI. As a result, reducing logistics risk through infrastructure improvement and enhanced productivity can help mitigate costs and inflation. Furthermore, effective exchange rate policies and sound liquidity management can minimize the adverse effects of sanctions.

In this study, the continuous wavelet transformation approach is employed to test the dynamics of the causality between two principal inflation indices i.e. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) based on monthly data from 1990:5 to 2013: 12 for the Iranian economy. Analyzing the dynamics of causality between these two inflation indices could provide significant policy implications. One of the dominant aspects of this approach compared with the conventional causality tests is that it has a higher ability in analyzing dynamics of causality between time series. The wavelet, as a band pass filter to the time series, is stretched in time by varying its scale, which makes it possible to show the short run and long run causalities between the time series. In this paper, we apply the continuous wavelet transformation to study the inflationary cycles of the Iranian economy. The results confirm both demand-pull and cost-push nature of inflation by indicating bidirectional causality between the CPI and PPI. In fact, the causality directions vary over time depending on different economic conditions.

Purpose: The response of the agricultural sector to the positive factors of investment is slower than other economic sectors due to the special conditions governing the production process of its products. It seems that the effectiveness of investment in the agricultural sector cannot be equal to and symmetrical with positive and negative factors. Despite the fact that inflation is considered as a stimulus for investment, it seems that, due to the high inflation rate and its high fluctuation in Iran over the last four decades, there has been no high alignment between agricultural investment and the inflation rate.The widespread governance of various types of uncertainty in Iran's agricultural sector is an important issue that can have a special role in the investment process in this sector. The main questions of this study are ‘what has been the effect of the increase and decrease of the inflation rate on investment in Iran's agricultural sector?’ and ‘what has been the effect of farm prices on investment in the agricultural sector?’ In this regard, the main goal of the present study is to investigate the effect of the agricultural producer price index and the asymmetric effect of the consumer inflation rate on the amount of investment in Iran's agricultural sector.Methodology: The study method is the library survey of documents, and the statistics are based on the annual time series obtained from the official statistical sources of the country (the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistics Center of Iran). The time period considered in this study is 1990-2021. The uncertainty in inflation rate here means fluctuations in the consumer inflation rate. The current study is of the causal type and aims to identify how the uncertainty of the inflation rate and other factors affected the amount of investment in Iran's agricultural sector during the past years. The follow-up of this issue has been done by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and estimating the coefficients of variables related to investment. The Microfit software was used to estimate the desired regression models.Findings and Discussion: The high value of the Agricultural Producer Price Index (APPI) compared to the Food and Beverage Consumer Price Index (FCPI) in the 2010s does not necessarily mean an increase in the profitability of agricultural production. It may have been due to the increase in the government’s paying more subsidies to the consumers of food and beverages. The research variables become stationary after at most one differentiation. Based on the calculated critical values and the F statistic, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the asymmetric model at all the levels is confirmed. According to expectations in 1990-2021, on the one hand, agricultural producer price index (APPI), agricultural value added (VAA) and agricultural net capital stock productivity (KP) have significant and positive effects on the amount of investment in the agricultural sector of Iran. On the other hand, the real exchange rate (RER), the interest rate of facilities paid to the agricultural sector (IR) and the uncertainty of the inflation rate (INF) have had significant and negative effects on the amount of agricultural investment. The results show that the coefficient of the error correction sentence is negative and significant (-0.245). This indicates that the short-term imbalance in the investment of the agricultural sector of Iran will reach the long-term balance at a suitable speed (about 4 years). According to the results of the Wald test, the effect of increasing and decreasing inflation rate fluctuations on investment in Iran's agricultural sector is asymmetric in the short and long terms. The model has no structural failure, the stability of the model has been confirmed in the long term, and the coefficients are reliable.Conclusions and Policy Implications: Iran's economy has always experienced high inflation rates in the last four decades. High inflation and the resulting uncertainty have been effective in the movement of financial resources and investment among economic sectors and the related activities. The results of the model estimation showed that, firstly, in the studied period (1990-2021), the consumer inflation rate had a significant effect on the amount of investment in Iran's agricultural sector, and secondly, this effect was asymmetric. The asymmetric effect of inflation on investment in the country's agricultural sector is an important issue that should be considered in investment policies in this sector. In order to increase investment in the agricultural sector, besides the necessity of improving the productivity of capital, stabilizing the exchange rate and reducing the interest rate of agricultural facilities, it is suggested to avoid suppressing the price of agricultural products, increase the price support for farmers and consumers, and reduce the inflation in the economy.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between price indicators and exchange rate in Iran with the approach of Wavelet coherence analysis in the period of April 2002 to December 2017. The results show that the relationship between consumer price index and exchange rate in in the mentioned period and at the one-year time scale has been homogeneous. And the intensity correlation between these variables for a short time scale, below two years, is very important. The interaction intensity between exchange rate and the consumer price index increases when exchange rate and inflation uncertainties have increased, and we are witnessing the formation of inflationary peaks in the inflation rate of the consumer price index. Also, examining the relationship suggests a strong and positive relationship between exchange rate and the producer price index during uncertain periods.

The main aim of this project was to measure price risk of “ Pistachios” and identifies its affecting factors. price risk of pistachio for country (Iran) and regions, which were major manufacturers of it, was measured by using Coppock index, coefficient of variability, ARIMA and GARCH methods and then these major manufacturers where ranked in this regard. Economic models and Panel patterns used to determine the effective factors on price risk of pistachio. In this study, the provinces of Kerman, Yazd, Semnan, Khorasan, South Khorasan and North Khorasan were investigated and the data have been collected during the period 1993-2014. Results indicated that the price risk of pistachio increased over time. And Yazd had the lowest price volatility and South Khorasan had the highest price risk. Global price variables of pistachio and exchange rate, with 0. 7 and 1. 2 respectively, had a significant effect on price volatility inside the country.

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy in recession and expansion periods of business cycles in Iran. It uses the distribution of price changes over time using micro-data of producer and consumer price indices from March 2004 to March 2007 and March 1990 to March 2017. Results show that the observed distribution price changes at the producer and consumer levels change significantly over time. Whereas price flexibility (or, similarly, price stickiness) is closely related to the impact of monetary policy, the variable distribution of price changes over time suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy should also change over time. We estimated the related parameters using the Ss model and the observed facts from the distribution of price changes, the price flexibility index, which shows how prices react to a monetary policy shock. The correlation coefficient and regression analysis results showed that the price flexibility index is counter-cyclical; this means that during periods of economic recession, the index of price flexibility increases. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy on real output decreases. However, during periods of economic expansion, the impact of monetary policy increases.